How to Win an Election: Winnability vs Votes

I've been researching local elections lately. We're still tweaking the game design a lot and the last thing we want is to mis-represent our subject matter. So my next few posts will be about how to win a local election followed by how it translates into gameplay.

Winnability

Before you even think about running for office, the first thing you should do is gauge your winnability.

"Do you have a realistic chance in winning this election, Mr. President?"

If you don't think you can win, then chances are the voters won't either.

The winnability question is important because it becomes the basis of your campaign strategy. Is it because a lot of people like you or a lot of people hate your opponent or you have a massive war chest or a command of a large block of voters?

Consider Pichay's senatorial bid. He had a massive war chest but he was relatively unknown so most of his ads are aimed at getting him into people's radar (the cheesy pechay ads).

Ryan: A little explanation here.  The Chinese Cabbage framing Pichay is called "Pechay" in the Philippines, hence the humor.  Also, I'm rather amused that Pichay, whose first name is Prospero, had a massive war chest.

Why else would you compare yourself to a vegetable?

Voter Awareness and Trust

A more scientific measure for winnability is a combination of voter awareness (do they know you?) and trust (do they trust you?). Surveys to answer these are conducted before a campaign starts. Don't even think of running for office with a <60% awareness rating.

Throughout the campaign, you resurvey the voters to measure your effectivity.

Self-fulfilling Prophecy

In the 2013 elections, one of the reasons the senatorial candidates made a big deal out of the TV surveys is because of the self-fulfilling nature of winnability. The more voters think you are going to win (regardless of issues or platform) the more likely that they'll vote for you. Most people don't want to waste their votes on a weak candidate.

Majority of your ground campaign is focused on creating an aura of winnability. Your campaign posters have to be bigger, campaign jingles catchier, and your sorties more packed. Candidates will even bring in audience members from other districts just to fill the seats.

Everyone is a winner, the printers specially

Winnability can also result to defection. Some supporters might switch sides if they doubt the chances of their candidate.

Winnability != Votes

While increasing winnability is the driving force of your campaign, it might not translate directly into votes come election day. Because 3rd world!

Certain districts might have historically low voter turn out. Your opponent might actively discourage voter turn out in one of your districts (ex. by bribing public transport to go on strike, or inviting them to a beach party with a sexy starlet, whatever stops people from going to the precinct).

This is why "special arrangements" is a big item in a candidate's budget. The last two days before the election is all about making sure winnability translates into votes (or the reverse if you're on the losing side).

Even with a clear advantage, the winnable candidate must defend his voter base against intimidation and bribery. While a losing candidate must be prepared to do everything he can to win. Because even if you cheated, the election court is so slow you'd have served your full term by the time they reach a verdict! Because 3rd world!